The Canadian Press, via The Star, November 15, 2024
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "APEC is meeting in the context of rising protectionism, intense geopolitical competition, uncertain economic growth and the Trump election...
"[Vina explains that] Trudeau has been pushing to preserve rules-based trade 'that is critical to our prosperity,' especially with like-minded countries."
Click here to read the full version of this Canadian Press story.
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "Some say when the U.S. becomes unreliable and unpredictable, that other democracies, middle powers like Japan, Australia, Canada and others, should be coming together and cooperating more closely...
"But we also see a tendency that everybody just tries to manage their relationship with the U.S. bilaterally, like everybody is just trying to survive the chaos as opposed to coordinating."
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, President & CEO, APF Canada
Excerpt: "In absolute terms, exports to Asia have grown at a healthy clip...there are good opportunities for Canadian companies to expand in Southeast Asia and Japan, where agriculture tariffs are declining as part of the CPTPP.
"....But other markets haven’t shaped up the way evangelists of trade diversification had hoped. Companies are nervous to expand in China, given its tensions with the U.S., and the diplomatic spat between Canada and India over the killing of a Canadian citizen, allegedly by Indian agents, has flattened the trajectory of what could have been possible."
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "If there are charges laid in the process on individuals that are living in India at whatever level, then it would trigger an extradition process which could take years. And of course India is unlikely to cooperate.
"Whether that would be the case now I think it's a bigger question mark, because the disruption is on a bigger scale, and we're still not, I believe, at the bottom of this."
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "What has happened now is obviously a huge escalation in the diplomatic crisis... We’re waiting to see what will be the ramifications on some sectors, particularly commercial relations, as well as the flow of students to Canada, as well as obviously travel from Canada.
“...[T]here’s a lot of diversity in the Indo-Canadian community and the South Asian community in Canada... Particularly in public discussions, and the way the media covers it, sometimes there’s this kind of blanket statement [about] that one community... [yet] there is now a heightened sense of fear and tensions and uncertainty across the [Hindu and Sikh] communities within Canada."
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "Ottawa is unlikely to take more punitive steps until more details of the Nijjar case emerge...
"If there are charges laid in the process on individuals that are living in India at whatever level, then it would trigger an extradition process which could take years. And of course, India is unlikely to cooperate."
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "India has made it very clear [that] it sees this dispute very much as something initiated by Prime Minister [Justin] Trudeau and his government—so they have personalized it in some ways—which leads me to believe that, as long as we have the current government in Ottawa, it is unlikely that we see a change in the diplomatic relationship."
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "Vina Nadjibulla... told CBC News that not only in ASEAN, but in the past two years, Canada has increased its exposure in the Indo-Pacific region in all aspects, including visibility in the Taiwan Strait and participation in military and maritime exercises in the Indo-Pacific region.
" 'The stability and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region is in Canada's best interest. Canada needs to continue to implement the Indo-Pacific Strategy and build partnerships. In addition to trade, investment and economic prosperity, it should also assist in the peace and stability of the region because we rely on continued peace in the region.' "
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: Vina Nadjibulla outlines how there are "two sides to the story" when it comes to China's green policies. "Chinese investment has made its green technological advancements affordable for the rest of the world. In the developing world today, oftentimes renewable energy is the cheapest option.
“The dark side of the story is that China did this through subsidies and through artificially lowering prices such that (the) solar industry in the US and European Union was wiped out.”
Nadjibulla futhur stresses how the "U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, and other efforts in Europe are trying to make sure the West doesn’t get wiped out when it comes to EVs or batteries."
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, President & CEO, APF Canada
Excerpt: “'The Indian government has already shown its willingness once to suspend the visa issuance, so it’s possible they could do so again,' he said, adding the biggest impact will be felt in Canada’s large Indian diaspora community.
"Mr Nankivell said that he suspects the diplomatic situation will continue to evolve, and the fallout will be felt for a long time as Canadian police pursue legal action against those allegedly complicit in Mr Nijjar’s death and other criminal acts.
“'That’s going to continue to raise the temperature.'"
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "'There’s never a good time to be getting into a trade dispute, especially with a big country like India. But of course we’re living through a very fraught geopolitical environment and time.'
"...Over the past five years, around a quarter of Canadian pension-fund investments in Asia went to India, up from 10 per cent between 2003 and 2018, according to the Asia Pacific Foundation."
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "Nadjibulla said the chance of India moving to restrict imports of a Canadian product... is unlikely, though not impossible.
'It would be a massive escalation and one that would also obviously hurt India’s economic interests,' she said, adding a more likely scenario would be for India to once again suspend visa services for Canadians, as it did last year as diplomatic relations soured between the two countries.
'I think that might be more the next step, rather than economic sanctions. But of course everything depends on what Canada does next, because we’ve seen India essentially engage in a tit-for-tat so far.'"
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: These circumstances represent a "much bigger campaign of transnational repression with direct involvement from... government of India's agents.
"...What has been extraordinary about the latest development is not just that a murder took place last year is under investigation, but according to Canadian officials... there is an ongoing threat to public safety. That in fact violence has increased over the last year and there is evidence of direct involvement from the government of India."
Avec : Vina Nadjibulla, vice-présidente, Recherche et stratégie, FAP Canada
Extrait : « En matière diplomatique, c’est quelque chose [les expulsions] qui arrive très rarement entre des pays qui ont des relations amicales. Même au paroxysme des tensions entre le Canada et la Chine, on n’en était pas arrivé là.
Ce sera un exercice d’équilibre très difficile. Le Canada seul ne peut se mesurer à l’Inde. »
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "This is an extremely significant development. We are seeing a diplomatic disruption, a rupture in the relationship, on a scale that is unprecedented.
It's maybe too soon to say what the economic consequences will be, but it will definitely have an impact"
Avec : Vina Nadjibulla, vice-présidente, Recherche et stratégie, FAP Canada
Extrait : «La réaction des États-Unis sera celle à laquelle tout le monde prêtera attention.
«Pour que le Canada, à ce stade, obtienne une forme quelconque de coopération de la part de l'Inde et obtienne des comptes pour ce qui s'est passé, il faudrait que l'Inde ressente une certaine pression. Il faudrait que l'Inde ait une raison de coopérer.»
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "We are in uncharted territory, with implications for the diplomatic relationship as well as for Canada's public safety and national security.
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "The reaction from the U.S. is going to be the one that everybody will be paying attention to.
"...In order for Canada, at this stage, to have any kind of co-operation from India and seek accountability for what has happened, we would need India to feel some pressure, we would need India to feel some reason to co-operate.
"...We're not dealing here with a rogue state. We're dealing here with a very important international player."
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, APF Canada
Excerpt: "The relations between Canada and India are now at an extremely low point . . . today's developments and the information that has now become available both through the press briefing by our prime minister as well as our law enforcement agencies it's just a new level of escalation and it's the kind of disruption to the relationship that won't be healed anytime soon.
"We're seeing India fully refusing all the allegations, essentially refusing to co-operate. Canada continues to call on India to engage diplomatically, to engage with our law enforcement to get to the bottom of this assassination, essentially, and other violent crimes that now the Canadian government is saying India has been involved in.
"As our prime minister said, there was no desire on the part of Canada to find itself in this huge diplomatic crisis with India, but given the seriousness of the allegations, given the fact Canada now says India was involved in a whole wide campaign of criminal activities, not just one assassination, this step had to be taken. Of course now we are in uncharted diplomatic waters."