In the News

How geopolitics caught up with Canada

Financial Times, November 25, 2023

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy

Reporter: Demetri Stevastopulo

Extract:

“The Indo-Pacific strategy had a clear message on China that has not changed. But our diplomacy — how we deal with China and others — now has to take into account the need for pragmatism,” says Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Nadjibulla says that includes the need to stabilise relations with China and have a more constructive dialogue with the country, as the US and Australia have recently been doing.

Anthony Albanese recently became the first Australian prime minister to visit China in seven years, in a trip that eased tensions in what has been a frosty relationship, particularly since his predecessor called for an investigation into China and the Covid-19 pandemic. “

Australia has demonstrated how you can stabilise relations with China while not giving up on your principles and values,” Nadjibulla adds.

Is Biden-Xi meeting a reset of U.S.-China relations?

CBC News, November 16, 2023

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy

Host: David Cochrane

Extract: 

David Cochrane: "Where does Canada fit into this deescalation between the US and China and the APEC summit more broadly?"

Vina Nadjibulla: "Well, at this point, Canada is the only G7 that doesn't have high level dialogue with China. We're still frozen out. We saw Australia reengage after their difficult relationship with China was sort of going on for almost five years as well. So for us, given our relationship with China and our relationship with India, a lot of attention is currently on ASEAN, which is also why we're seeing the bilateral meetings that Prime Minister Trudeau is having here within Indonesia with Thailand and others as well. And of course, all the trade missions that are going to go to ASEAN in the beginning of 2024. And there are also conversations with Australia, which I hope will be largely around how do we manage our relations with China. And hopefully some lessons that Canada can learn from how Australia has stabilized its relations with China while also being a really close ally of the US, taking part in AUKUS and the Quad, and all of the other mechanisms that are now being put in place in the Indo-Pacific to deal with China."

Full day of bilateral meetings at APEC Summit

CTV News, November 16, 2023

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy

Reporter: Marcia MacMillan

Extract: 

Marcia MacMillan: "Tensions are high between China and Canada. How do you see this affecting the summit for Canada and Canada's role there?"

Vina Nadjibulla: "Well, Canada is here really to establish that it is a Pacific nation in the same way that the US is hosting this summit, to basically remind everyone that the United States is a powerful Pacific nation. That is also Canada's message. Here we have an Indo Pacific strategy, a strategy that was launched last year. And, of course, now we're here to try to deepen relations with key partners in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines. Also, APEC involves Taiwan as an active economy, which is really a great opportunity for us to continue to strengthen economic, trade and cultural relations with Taiwan. And, of course, APEC represents 88% of our trade, which is a really important thing to remember as we focus on economic development issues, on affordability issues. Our prosperity, Canadian prosperity, is tied to this region, which is why it's really critical for us to be here in full force and to try to deepen partnerships and relations." 

Biden, Xi meet face-to-face for 1st time in a year

CBC News, November 15, 2023

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy

Reporter: Ashley Burke

Extract: 

Vina Nadjibulla: "No one wants to see escalation of tensions in the South China Sea or East China Sea over the Taiwan issue."

Asia-Pacific leaders gather in San Francisco as tensions with China run high

CBC News, November 15, 2023

Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy

Reporter: Janyce McGregor

Extract:

"Everybody's hoping for some kind of a floor under this relationship, some kind of a detente and understanding," said Vina Nadjibulla, the vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. "No one wants to see escalation of tensions in the South China Sea or East China Sea over the Taiwan issue."

But if Biden's motives as summit host are too focused on containing China from a security perspective, that risks alienating other partners in the Indo-Pacific.

"The region is much more interested in economic collaboration and economic integration, trade investments," Nadjibulla said. "The big issue will really be, what does that U.S. commitment look like?"

Government confirms 41 diplomats have left India as diplomatic tensions remain high

CBC News, October 19, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, President & CEO, APF Canada

Excerpt: "'I can't think of a of a precedent, certainly no precedent in the Canada-India relationship, and to do it on on the scale that is being reported certainly would be a significant drag on Canada's diplomatic operations across India'

"Nankivell said Canada needs large consular operations in India to handle the volume of visa applications from that country, which is both the top source country for international students to Canada and the top source country for immigrants to Canada overall."

Government confirms 41 diplomats have left India as diplomatic tensions remain high

CBC News, October 19, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Evan Dyer

Extract: 

Former Canadian diplomat Jeff Nankivell, president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, agreed that the sanction was extraordinary.

"I can't think of a of a precedent, certainly no precedent in the Canada-India relationship, and to do it on on the scale that is being reported certainly would be a significant drag on Canada's diplomatic operations across India," he said.

Nankivell said Canada needs large consular operations in India to handle the volume of visa applications from that country, which is both the top source country for international students to Canada and the top source country for immigrants to Canada overall.

As a deadline passes, Canadian diplomats remain in India

CBC News, October 11, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, President & CEO, APF Canada

Excerpt: "'I can't think of a precedent, certainly no precedent in the Canada-India relationship. And to do it on on the scale that is being reported certainly would be a significant drag on Canada's diplomatic operations across India.'

"Nankivell says Canada needs large consular operations in India to handle the volume of visa applications from that country, which is both the top source country for international students to Canada and the top source country for immigrants to Canada overall."

India gives Canada deadline of October 10th to reduce diplomatic staff in the country

CBC News Network, October 7, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Andrew Nichols

Extract: 

Andrew Nichols: "Prime Minister Trudeau, obviously, [made] the bombshell allegation in the House of Commons a few weeks ago. But since then, he seems to have shown we don't want to escalate, we want to keep kind of things cool. But clearly, that's not how India has responded. I mean it has escalated from their side, right? Why do you think it's escalated to such an intense level?"

Jeff Nankivell: "Well, I think the disparity between the two sides can be explained by the fact that, first of all, Canada already started at a very high level to have the Prime Minister stand in the House of Commons and make the statement that he made. It's hard to see how you escalate from there in terms of your messaging. And on the Indian side, there is clearly pressure on the government to take steps to punish the government of Canada. And so I think that's why you're seeing this difference between the two sides. But on the Canadian side, it's pretty clear it's not in Canada's national interest. For example, when India stopped issuing visas for Canadian citizens to visit India, it would not be in Canada's interest to stop issuing visas for Indians to come to Canada. And I'm confident the government of Canada will be doing everything within its power to maintain the operational capacity to be able to continue issuing visas for Indians to come to Canada."

BBC World Business Matters

BBC, October 7, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Roger Hearing

Extract:

Roger Hearing: "So at the moment, it wouldn't be possible to say that the people you represent, some of the member companies, are losing financially right now because of this. But it's more potential."

Jeff Nankivell: "Exactly."

Roger Hearing: "And at the moment, that potential is considerable because there doesn't seem to be much progress in the way of settling all this."

Jeff Nankivell: "No. And it's really hard to see what the Canadian government could do at this stage to climb down or to mollify the Modi government in India in some way. And in terms of potential escalation, how do you escalate beyond a statement in your national parliament connecting another country's government with a murder on your soil? I think Canada is already far out there in terms of its position, and we'll just have to see where the criminal investigation on this matter leads, what kind of evidence eventually comes to the public light."

Canada-India tensions: Deadline draws near for diplomats to withdraw

Global News, October 6, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Touria Izri

Extract:

Touria Izri: "Canada insists it does not want to escalate the situation. But every week, there's been an escalation: travel advisories, suspended visa applications and now a mass expulsion."

Jeff Nankivell: "I think you'll see a very, very moderate response in the coming weeks from the Canadian side that really looks to preserving our national interests."

Reports: India has told Canada to withdraw 41 diplomats before October 10

CBC News Network, October 4, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Aarti Pole

Extract:

Aarti Pole: "What do you anticipate will happen between these two countries?"

Jeff Nankivell: "It's a very difficult situation and I think it's going to take time to resolve. I think there are very strong domestic political pressures on Prime Minister Modi of India. I think it's possible that this latest escalation by New Delhi could be partially in response to the phenomenon that there is commentary in Western capitals of people who are paying attention to the allegations arising from Canada and its intelligence partnerships about the potential involvement of the Indian state in a murder of a Canadian on Canadian soil. And in places like Washington. We are seeing public discussion about whether the nature of those allegations changes how India is viewed internationally. So, I think the stakes are also high for the Modi government, and they are taking further steps to escalate this on the Canadian side.

It's clearly not in our national interest to escalate this further. For example, where India has stopped issuing visas to Canadians, I would be very surprised to see Canada stop issuing visas to Indians. There's no logic to it. It's not in our interest. I think the challenge may arise from maintaining the operations of the three consulates and the High Commission in India to be able to continue issuing visas. But we also issue visas to Indian citizens who are applying in third locations. And I would expect that probably would continue in any case, which is not something that India is offering for Canadian citizens, which, again, demonstrates the punitive nature of the measures imposed by India."

Joly urges talks after India reportedly orders dozens of Canadian diplomats to leave

The Globe and Mail, October 3, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Robert Fife

Extract:

Jeff Nankivell, president and chief executive officer of the Asian Pacific Foundation of Canada and a former Canadian diplomat, said he does not think that Ottawa will respond in kind to India’s latest diplomatic salvo.

He said the reduction of Canadian diplomatic staff will hamper operations in India, but noted that Canada also employs many Indian staff at the high commission in New Delhi and its three consulates and four trade offices.

"We do have very large numbers of local staff, locally engaged staff," he said, "including at the professional level who work on matters related to trade and immigration and political analysis and consular services."

The biggest possible obstacle is the inability to process visas for Indians seeking to study, do business or travel to Canada, Mr. Nankivell said, adding that Canada could work around this by processing visas online, by mail or through Canadian missions in nearby third countries.

Any impact on Indian student inflows could hurt Canada: Asia Pacific Foundation’s Jeff Nankivell

CTV News / BNN Bloomberg, September 21, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Jacqueline Hansen

Extract:

Jeff Nankivell, President and CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, tells BNN Bloomberg that the single greatest economic relationship between the two countries is the inflow of students from India, and that if that is diminished, it would have negative implications not just for educational institutions but also for Canadian communities that are hosts to Indian international students.

He says Canadian portfolio investors are well embedded in important sectors of the Indian economy and does not expect any near term impact on these investments.

BBC World Business Report: September 20, 2023

BBC, September 20, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Roger Hearing

Extract:

Roger Hearing: "So Jeff, what happens then? Because, clearly, relations at the moment are in the freezer, in the deep freeze. Do you see problems ahead?"

Jeff Nankivell: "There's potential for problems, definitely. And on the goods side, there could be a vulnerability for Canadian exporters of agricultural products. And I say that because, typically, when governments want to express diplomatic displeasure through punitive trade measures, they look at what kind of technical measures or barriers they could put up on agriculture products. And there has been a history between Canada and India of some disputes about the requirements on the Indian side for Canadian agricultural products, mainly lentils entering the Indian market. Up to now that's been out of a general protectionist kind of policy in India, not specifically targeting Canada, but it is a tool that's available.

And when it comes to the student flows, you know, the demand in India for education in Canada is extremely high and the Canadian brand is very strong. So it would take a lot to knock that off course. But we've seen in the last 24 hours the media reaction in India has been very vociferous about this matter. So we'll have to see how that weighs on public opinion in the coming months."

How bad could the Canada-India dispute get?

Toronto Star, September 20, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Nicholas Keung

Extract: 

Jeff Nankivell, President of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said, "India is Canada’s 10th largest trading partner — with coal, potash and lentils as the former’s main imports. Any punitive measures from New Delhi would first affect agricultural imports from Canada."

"Canada’s relationship with a major power in Asia and the fastest growing economy in the world is going to be on the rocks," though he said he expects the inflow of Indian students — about 320,000 in 2022 — will not be immediately affected.

“There’s a huge demand in India for Canadian higher education. And I think it would take a lot to knock that off course,” said Nankivell, who had 33-year career in Canada’s foreign service, including a stint as Consul General of Canada in Hong Kong and Macao.

Canada trades billions in goods with India. As tensions rise, what’s at stake?

Global News, September 20, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Aaron D'Andrea

Extract: 

Trudeau said Tuesday that Canada is not looking to “provoke or escalate” tensions with India, and wants its government to co-operate in the investigation, which is being led by the RCMP.

However, with India’s strong denial and with trade talks on ice, the spat carries the risk of arbitrary trade measures, said Jeff Nankivell, president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

"The greatest vulnerability would be in the agriculture sector.… Typically, when governments want to express their displeasure through trade measures … this has to do with how many inspections you need, what kind of chemicals you’re allowed to apply to the crop and that kind of thing," he told Global News.

"That’s the go-to play in the playbook for affecting trade interests as a way of expressing diplomatic displeasure, and that would be one area we need to be watching out for to see if there are any measures taken by the Indian government."

Nankivell added that a long-running spat could potentially impact the number of international students from India in Canada.

"That would affect a lot of different economic interests in Canada, both in the higher education institutions and also the local economies where those institutions are located," he said.

Tensions are high right now between Canada and India, but how will that affect trade between the two countries?

CBC Radio 1: The Early Edition, September 20, 2023 

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Stephen Quinn

Extract: 

Stephen Quinn: "It feels like relations between India and Canada are probably the worst they've been in a very long time. But even before this, they had been cooling off. Bring us up to speed about what was going on even before Monday."

Jeff Nankivell: "Well, it goes back decades that Canada and India have had a difficult diplomatic relationship. And you would go back to the 1970s when India developed its first nuclear weapons and was sanctioned by Canada for having made use of Canadian CANDU nuclear technology that was provided for power generation. And so that was a difficult thing to get out of. And then in the 1980s, you saw the rise of the pro-Khalistan independence movement in India and notably in Canada. And it's been a major irritant for the Indian government. So relations have been cool for some time, but this is definitely, I think, biggest crisis that we've seen in the relationship."

Canada India diplomatic spat over Sikh leader killing

BBC News, September 19, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Luxmy Gopal

Extract:

Luxmy Gopal: How far do you think the strength of words from Justin Trudeau is partly with a political mind towards the election coming up?

Jeff Nankivell: I would say the allegations are extremely serious. I mean, it's a murder committed on Canadian soil of a Canadian citizen. So, I'm not sure that any Canadian prime minister would use anything but the very strongest terms to condemn it, regardless of political considerations. That said, the population, people who are members of the Sikh community in Canada, it's a very substantial population. In the last census a couple of years ago, around 770,000 people reported themselves to be Sikhs in Canada, mostly in the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver and a couple of other cities. So, it is a very significant community in Canada and carries significant political weight. 

Luxmy Gopal: What do you expect the response to be now from India? 

Jeff Nankivell: Well, I think we already have reports that India will expel a Canadian diplomat. That was an absolute certainty once Canada took the measure yesterday of expelling an Indian diplomat. And I think beyond that, it remains to be seen. It's a trade relationship, but it's not the most important trade relationship to either country, India or Canada. In terms of export markets, it's Canada's 10th largest export market, about a fifth of the volume of exports that Canada exports to China, and about 1% of what Canada exports to the US. But it is a significant market for some Canadian products; coal and potash and lentils. So, there are some economic interests at stake for Canada. I think the pain in this is that it's a criminal matter, not just a diplomatic matter.

Escalating tensions between India and Canada spark trade worries: experts

Canadian Press (syndicated), September 19, 2023 

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Ian Bickis

Extract:

"Canada's trade relationship with India has so far failed to reach its potential," said Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada President Jeff Nankivell. "This rift jeopardizes existing exports and efforts to boost trade between the two countries."

"India's response could include drummed-up concerns about pest levels in agricultural imports, a practice that India, and much more so China, have allegedly used to hit trade partners," Nankivell said.

"There's a risk in these situations of arbitrary trade measures."

Nankivell also raised that possibility, noting that the Foundation's monitoring of Indian media shows it has been sharply critical of Canada's actions so far.

He said that with what is a criminal investigation into the killing still ongoing, he expects further pain for the bilateral relationship in the coming months as more revelations potentially come to light, with no resumption of trade talks expected for quite a long time.

"Canadian pensions and businesses will still be looking to expand in the country," said Nankivell, "but will likely be quieter about it."

"You'll see that continue, but they'll probably want to keep a low profile about it ... not waving the Canadian flag as much as they would have a few years ago."