In the News

Canada trades billions in goods with India. As tensions rise, what’s at stake?

Global News, September 20, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Aaron D'Andrea

Extract: 

Trudeau said Tuesday that Canada is not looking to “provoke or escalate” tensions with India, and wants its government to co-operate in the investigation, which is being led by the RCMP.

However, with India’s strong denial and with trade talks on ice, the spat carries the risk of arbitrary trade measures, said Jeff Nankivell, president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

"The greatest vulnerability would be in the agriculture sector.… Typically, when governments want to express their displeasure through trade measures … this has to do with how many inspections you need, what kind of chemicals you’re allowed to apply to the crop and that kind of thing," he told Global News.

"That’s the go-to play in the playbook for affecting trade interests as a way of expressing diplomatic displeasure, and that would be one area we need to be watching out for to see if there are any measures taken by the Indian government."

Nankivell added that a long-running spat could potentially impact the number of international students from India in Canada.

"That would affect a lot of different economic interests in Canada, both in the higher education institutions and also the local economies where those institutions are located," he said.

Tensions are high right now between Canada and India, but how will that affect trade between the two countries?

CBC Radio 1: The Early Edition, September 20, 2023 

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Stephen Quinn

Extract: 

Stephen Quinn: "It feels like relations between India and Canada are probably the worst they've been in a very long time. But even before this, they had been cooling off. Bring us up to speed about what was going on even before Monday."

Jeff Nankivell: "Well, it goes back decades that Canada and India have had a difficult diplomatic relationship. And you would go back to the 1970s when India developed its first nuclear weapons and was sanctioned by Canada for having made use of Canadian CANDU nuclear technology that was provided for power generation. And so that was a difficult thing to get out of. And then in the 1980s, you saw the rise of the pro-Khalistan independence movement in India and notably in Canada. And it's been a major irritant for the Indian government. So relations have been cool for some time, but this is definitely, I think, biggest crisis that we've seen in the relationship."

Canada India diplomatic spat over Sikh leader killing

BBC News, September 19, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Host: Luxmy Gopal

Extract:

Luxmy Gopal: How far do you think the strength of words from Justin Trudeau is partly with a political mind towards the election coming up?

Jeff Nankivell: I would say the allegations are extremely serious. I mean, it's a murder committed on Canadian soil of a Canadian citizen. So, I'm not sure that any Canadian prime minister would use anything but the very strongest terms to condemn it, regardless of political considerations. That said, the population, people who are members of the Sikh community in Canada, it's a very substantial population. In the last census a couple of years ago, around 770,000 people reported themselves to be Sikhs in Canada, mostly in the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver and a couple of other cities. So, it is a very significant community in Canada and carries significant political weight. 

Luxmy Gopal: What do you expect the response to be now from India? 

Jeff Nankivell: Well, I think we already have reports that India will expel a Canadian diplomat. That was an absolute certainty once Canada took the measure yesterday of expelling an Indian diplomat. And I think beyond that, it remains to be seen. It's a trade relationship, but it's not the most important trade relationship to either country, India or Canada. In terms of export markets, it's Canada's 10th largest export market, about a fifth of the volume of exports that Canada exports to China, and about 1% of what Canada exports to the US. But it is a significant market for some Canadian products; coal and potash and lentils. So, there are some economic interests at stake for Canada. I think the pain in this is that it's a criminal matter, not just a diplomatic matter.

Escalating tensions between India and Canada spark trade worries: experts

Canadian Press (syndicated), September 19, 2023 

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Ian Bickis

Extract:

"Canada's trade relationship with India has so far failed to reach its potential," said Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada President Jeff Nankivell. "This rift jeopardizes existing exports and efforts to boost trade between the two countries."

"India's response could include drummed-up concerns about pest levels in agricultural imports, a practice that India, and much more so China, have allegedly used to hit trade partners," Nankivell said.

"There's a risk in these situations of arbitrary trade measures."

Nankivell also raised that possibility, noting that the Foundation's monitoring of Indian media shows it has been sharply critical of Canada's actions so far.

He said that with what is a criminal investigation into the killing still ongoing, he expects further pain for the bilateral relationship in the coming months as more revelations potentially come to light, with no resumption of trade talks expected for quite a long time.

"Canadian pensions and businesses will still be looking to expand in the country," said Nankivell, "but will likely be quieter about it."

"You'll see that continue, but they'll probably want to keep a low profile about it ... not waving the Canadian flag as much as they would have a few years ago."

Expanding B.C.-India trade likely challenged by new diplomatic strains

Vancouver Sun, September 19, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Derrick Penner

Extract: 

Still, it is "hard to understate just how dramatic" Trudeau’s allegations were in damaging the relationship between the two countries, which won’t make trade easier, according to Jeff Nankivell, CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Diplomatic relations between the countries have "been strained for decades" over issues such as India’s use of Canadian technology in its nuclear-weapons program and support of Canadian Sikh diaspora communities for Khalistan independence, Nankivell said.

"It was already a trade relationship that was, by all accounts, underperforming relative to the potential, if you look at the Indian economy and what Canada can supply," Nankivell said.

"So I think the first casualty of the new situation will be diminished enthusiasm on both sides for taking big steps to expand trade and investment ties."

What Trudeau’s allegations could mean for the Canada-India economic relationship

The Globe and Mail, September 19, 2023

Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO

Reporter: Jason Kirby

Extract:

"A potential area of vulnerability would be the imposition of arbitrary phytosanitary measures on agrifood products to exert pressure, because that has happened in the past," said Jeff Nankivell, Chief Executive Officer of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.